The Richardson Conundrum — Is JRich on His Way Out of the League or was he Miscast in Dallas?
Josh Richardson was not very good last season. The Dallas Mavericks had a 6.1 Net Rating when JRich was OFF the floor. They were -.2 with him ON in almost 1800 minutes (1700 with him OFF). Dallas effectively killed teams when JRich didn’t play, and were not a playoff team in the minutes he did (he was also a hilarious -30 Net Rating in the playoffs in 13 MPG). That’s not exactly indicative of a guy that was playing winning basketball. All his advanced stats range from bad, 54.4 TS% (Smart finished at 53.9 for comparison) and 12.3 Ast% (Smart was at 22.7, start him at PG Ime you coward) to ok, 1.94 Ast/TO.
What’s strange is that in the two years prior, JRich was by almost all measures, a slightly above average player. Philly was 1.6 Pts/100 possessions with him ON and Miami was a crazy 4.5 points/100 better (roughly how much better the Cs were when Tatum played this season). Now there is almost certainly some noise with the Philly number as JRich had the pleasure of sharing the court with Embiid for a lot of his minutes, but that Heat team two years ago wasn’t very good, and they played solid playoff level ball when Richardson was on the court.
Which brings me to the question at hand . . . what the fuck happened? Did a 27 year old just completely fall off a cliff? His 3pt FG% has been creeping downward since shooting 38% in 17–18, and he shot it at a Smart-esque 33% last season (34% the year before). Was he a victim of his role in Dallas? Did playing with Embiid artificially boost his advanced stats since his shooting numbers still weren’t good, albeit better? Is the HeAt CuLtUrE wearing off? Let’s find out.
Shifting Roles, Different Goals
I think it’s pretty clear from the numbers that JRich was asked to play a different role with Dallas than he did the previous two seasons, although it may not be drastic enough to explain how bad his performance was. Let’s look at the numbers. This chart is going to show you the percentage of his possessions that were PnR with him as the ball handler, the percent of possessions with him as a spot up guy, how many dribbles his shots came after, and his average time per touch.
Some super interesting stuff in those numbers. It’s pretty clear that JRich’s role shifted from secondary ball handler/primary ballhandler type to more of spot up player with Dallas. For reference a cross section of players with 30 to 35 percent of their possessions coming as the PnR ballhandler are Kyrie Irving, Jamal Murray, Brandon Ingram, Dwayne Bacon (come on Magic, you are letting Bacon run 3.5 PnRs a game!!??). Guys that have about 20% of their possessions soaked up by pick and roll include Buddy Heild, Norm Powell, Taurean Prince. Guys that are best known for spot up shooting and attack closeouts.
One thing I probably should have included is that JRich’s efficiency in the pick and roll basically has not changed. He’s been between the 47th and 51st percentile as a PnR ballhandler all three years. He is comparatively worse as a spot up guy the last two seasons as he was in the 45th percentile this year and the 41st last year. He was in the 69th and 68th percentile his last two years with the Heat, if he can find that ability again, he’s a much easier player to fit on a roster.
So is he Going to be Good or What?
As with most things, I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Richardson was probably playing a bit above his head with the Heat, but I don’t think he’s as un-playably bad as he looked for Dallas. It’s worth noting that Richardson had a bout with Covid and Cs fans know better than anyone how that can derail a player.
Looking at JRich, I think it’s pretty clear that he feels more comfortable in a system where he can get the ball in his hands and has a little freedom. Dallas is the opposite of that, they play one of the most heliocentric games in the league with Luka dominating every possession while he’s on the court. When Richardson was seeing more of the ball, he was more effective. Some guys are like that. Not every halfway decent shooter can move into a Danny Green-esque role where they touch the ball for 1 second every other possession and go 4/10 from 3. That’s a difficult and under appreciated skillset in the NBA. It’s a skillset that Richardson clearly does not possess.
What Richardson can be is a passable secondary ballhandler for bench units. His inability to consistently knock down catch and shoot 3s limits his utility when playing with the Jays, but he absolutely will be an upgrade to the bench scoring if used correctly. His game doesn’t engender ball movement, in fact, his team’s AST% dropped considerably with him ON. The issue is that while the best thing for Richardson is clearly to put the ball in his hands, he’s not quite good enough to justify doing so. He’s currently less effective at running a pick and roll than Tatum, Smart, and Brown. He almost certainly will be sharing the court with 1 of those guys at all times, and sometimes more.
That’s not ideal, but I do think he can be useful. Sometimes you just need a guy that can come in for 15 mins a game, cause some havoc on defense, and hit a few mid range jumpers off pick and rolls to prop up the bench while Tatum and Jaylen get a rest. If that is the plan for JRich, this will be a beneficial marriage. If we expect him to start alongside Smart in the backcourt, it’s going to be a long season.
