The Museum of Modern Smart — The Subtle Brillance of Marcus Smart — Part 2
Alright, I’m back with Part 2 of this 1 (I intentionally worded that confusingly because I hate my readers). I appreciate everyone interacting and showing love on the previous post (just kidding I love you all). My podcast partner /u/brutalgash even described Part 1 as “satisfyingly long”, which is a phrase my wife has never used to describe either my anatomy or endurance.
As discussed in Part 1, basically everything is better for the Celtics when Smart’s on the floor. This obviously makes sense on the defensive end, which makes it much easier to write about and why I did it first. What’s so difficult to explain is the insane offensive bump when Smart’s playing. I used a very professional and high-tech chart to show you this in Part 1, here is that chart, but updated as of 2/10 (this shit takes me a while to right dammit) with Offensive Rating in place of Defensive Rating.
StatONOFFDIFFNet Rating+8.4–0.6+9.0OFF Rating111.6105.3+6.3AST %59.858.5+1.3AST/TO1.791.49+.30REB%51.150.2+0.9EFG%53.750.3+3.4TS%57.454.2+3.2
I will reiterate this point here, the Celtics offense is way better in every way when Marcus Smart is on the floor. He has a TS% of 53.2, which is well below average and propped up by a very recent hot streak. When I wrote Part 1 a week ago it was 51.6.
He’s shooting 51.3% on 2s, which isn’t good. It’s also a career high. Here’s the rub with Smart, while he’s not a shooter, he can make shots. While he’s not a playmaker, he can make plays. While he’s not a slasher, he can drive and finish. Smart is very much an offensive Swiss Army knife. Yeah, the scissors on a Swiss Army Knife suck, the knives are kinda dull, and I’m sorry, is that a nail file? But you know what, when you need those tools, it’s incredibly useful to have even a below average version. Is he Hakeem in the post? Fuck no, but if you put Kemba on him down there, he will fucking push him into the stanchion and either finish or find an open shooter.
With that said, there is one offensive skill that Smart is truly very, very good at, and that’s passing. He’s not an elite playmaker, but he reads the game so damn well, and commonly bails the Cs out of bad, ground-down possessions. So I’m going to take this up in two sections. First, I’ll talk about the immense value Smart brings as a passer and playmaker on a team that desperately needs both. Second, I’m gonna talk about all the random other shit he can do if necessary. I’ve dubbed that section “Other Stuff Smart Can Do.” I don’t know how the Ringer hasn’t hired me yet.
Marcus the Connector
Look, Marcus Smart isn’t going to shoot 50/40/90 anytime soon, but he doesn’t need to in order to be effective on that end. Smart does not get nearly enough credit for how well he reads the game and his overall passing acumen. His limitation is his inability to consistently put pressure on the rim. Yet, he still finds ways to impact the game with his playmaking. Here’s a chart of Smart’s key passing stats and his ranks on the Celtics:
StatValueCs RankPasses PG50.61stAst5.41stAST %22.62ndAST/TO2.543rd2ndary Ast0.63rdPotential Ast10.31stAst Pts Created13.91st
By all accounts Smart is the best passer on a pretty average passing team. That Ast% puts him at like 60th among guards that actually play (somewhat deflated because the Cs cannot shoot). The potential assist number is a bit more friendly, he’s right around 25th, just behind Steph Curry and just in front of De’Aron Fox. These numbers fall in line with the eye test, Smart is a good, not great playmaker. And like I said at the top, his limits are related more to his inability to pressure the rim opposed to not seeing passes. He’s 50th among guards in drives per game. Decidedly below average for a starting point guard. But you know what? Smart still makes it work, and the way in which he does so is unique that it’s just fucking fun to watch, so let’s dig in.
I likely bored you to death with Smart’s defensive highlights, this ain’t gonna be a Vince Carter dunk reel, but it won’t be quite as torturous. One of the biggest advantages Smart has as a passer right now is his incredible connection with Timelord. Rob Will has made 144 assisted buckets this season. 32% of them are assisted from Smart. That’s a lot. And it’s not just that Smart finds Timelord, it’s his ability to generate easy points for a team that has struggled to do so. Case in point, here is two minutes of Smart throwing alley oops to Timelord, FROM BEHIND THE FUCKING THREE POINT LINE! Dunks are by far the most efficient shot in basketball. Smart is generating them from halfcourt. Smart is in a position where his expected PPP on a shot would be like -300. If he shot from some of these spots, he’s more likely to have it carom off the rim, fly back to the other end of the court, go into the Celtics own basket than make the shot. So even despite the fact he’s in zero position to put pressure on the defense, Smart turns it into an almost guaranteed 2 (ya know, unless Rob misses the catch. Goes down as any old assist for Smart, but the value exceeds just that.
A big part of Smart’s and the team’s recent improvement has been him making the right decision and right read over and over again. I touched on that in Part 1, but he’s always done that on defense. This year, he’s taken on a bigger role as a tone setter on offense. A big part is pace. The Celtics have played at a snail’s pace for much of the year (25th in transitions possessions per game). That is not Marcus Smart’s fault. He’s regularly making the simple pass to create advantages for his team. This second play might not seem like a big deal, and Tatum hit a filthy fall-away, but he has an entire side of the court cleared for himself on that play. Do you know how rare that is? This is how teams defend Tatum. Giving him that much space to make a move and counter without help is almost a guaranteed two points. Simple, intelligent offense played with pace. Smart consistently brings just that.
Smart really has all the passes in his bag, he’s just not always in a position to unleash them. He can gun cross court dimes to open shooters. Makes the right pass in transition, or open up a zone with a cute little feed. On time, on target, kinda boring. But goddammit, it works.
The Other Random Shit Smart Can Do Alright
I cannot stress this enough; Marcus Smart is a weird ass basketball player. He’s a good pick and roll playmaker, but he can’t do shit finishing plays out of it. He’s in the 15th percentile for PnR Ballhandler efficiency. Yikes. That’s like Tristan Thompson spot up territory (that dude sucks ass at everything though let’s be real). Speaking of non-shooters and Spot Up possessions, he’s in the 55th percentile for Spot Up efficiency. He’s just good enough of a shooter (34% on Catch and Shoot 3s and 38% on Wide Open 3s) that you need to get out to him. That allows him to do stuff like this (he seriously has amazing chemistry with Rob).
I said at the top Smart isn’t great posting up, but he can post up, and I mean that shit. I mean everything I say unless I later discover it was incorrect. Then I was totally kidding. He’s in the 34th percentile for post up efficiency, but given the right matchup, he can make it work (get beasted Bones). He’s also a really good passer out of post ups, regularly starting the action that results in a good Celtics shot, or just throwing up in the fucking air for Rob to finish. Not something you want to build an offense around (really nothing Smart does is something you want to build an offense around), but an acceptable skill to deploy in the right matchups, which is especially useful given that he’s a point guard.
Like I’ve beat to death, his main weakness is he can’t quite get all the way to the rim to either pressure the defense or finish. He’s adapted by getting pretty good at these funky little finishes that he can go to with either hand. Nothing flashy, but effective enough that you’ve gotta hit him with a real contest. The numbers bear out that this is a new skill of his. He’s shooting a very solid 62.1% from 0–5 feet this year. Last year he shot a Tristan Thompson-esque 52.3% from that range (HE’S A CENTER HOW IS HE THAT BAD AT FINISHING HE SHOT 51.5% 0–5 FEET LAST YEAR, HOW!!?!?!?!??). Perhaps Smart’s best attribute is his ability to adapt and compensate for his weaknesses.
So what does all of this add up to, why is the Celtics’ offense so damn good with Smart if he’s just ok at all these things? Well first, the offense drops pretty significantly without Jayson Tatum on the court (his shooting is down, but the world has not caught on to how well Tatum has been playing in every other facet of the game). The important part isn’t that the offense falls apart without Tatum (it’s not good but it’s also not unplayably bad either, floats between 105–106 ORTG), it’s that it still stays well above average when Tatum shares the floor with Smart. Smart isn’t actively detracting from the offense, and I think you could argue he’s actively making both the Jays’ lives easier this year. Jayson Tatum scores more off Marcus Smart passes than any other teammate. Jaylen Brown scores more off Marcus Smart passes than any other teammate. He’s active off ball setting screens, cutting, moving the ball once he gets it, and of course, grifting a foul when the possession dies. Smart being good enough on offense that he’s basically a neutral is a huge boon for the Celtics as they can then reap the rewards of his defense with no downside.
In short, Smart is the Celtics’ traffic cop. He keeps things moving on and off ball even when a drunk driver threatens to back up the whole town (Aaron Nesmith is the basketball equivalent of a drunk driver). Perhaps no play encapsulates the Smart experience on offense more than this one. Starts off with a nice hit ahead to Tatum, nifty off ball cut to the corner to pull in Tatum’s guy, gets the kickout, pump and go, weaves by a few defenders, makes the perfect read for the drop off to Al, and Al can’t quiteeeeeeee snag the ball. Ends up in a turnover, but he did basically everything right. Even if this play didn’t turn out, on balance, throughout this season, Smart’s been doing the right thing over and over, and it’s worked a hell of a lot more often than it hasn’t.
