Constructing the Second Pillar — What Can Jaylen Brown Add to His Game Next Season — Part 1: A Look at Last Year
I truly cannot stop myself from writing way too much. Spoon R.R. Martin strikes again. See you guys later this week with Part 2, where I actually talk about what the hell I wanted to talk about.
Jaylen Brown and I are basically the same guy. Jaylen spent his summer traveling the world, chillin in Vegas, parlaying with important people, and smoking cigars. I too spent my summer jet setting around various continents and meeting with high level government officials. The only difference is that I was doing so on the Witcher 3 and that’s Jaylen’s real life (you can find me in Novigrad playing Gwent if you want to hang Jaylen). One thing I know Jaylen and I actually do have in common is that we both are certain he is going to take another important step in his career this season.
What isn’t exactly clear is what that step looks like. Well, I’m here to wildly speculate based on what I think will and what I want to happen. You can’t get this level of concrete analysis anywhere else on the internet folks. That said, in order to figure out where Jaylen is going to go, we need to understand where he is currently at, that will be the purpose of Part 1.
The strange bit about figuring out where Jaylen is currently at is that it’s sort of unclear based on last season. That’s not to say he isn’t amazing, he is. In the first section, I’m going to explore how his shot mix and attempts changed around the midpoint of last year, and discuss the one shot he doesn’t currently have, but will need to take the next step. In the second section, I’m going to flirt with talking about his playmaking, but ultimately I will pretend I have to go to the bathroom. At that point, I will leave playmaking at the table only to meet my good friend “Cut Down on the Fucking Turnovers” at the bar. Away we go.
The Schizophrenic Mid Range Assassin
Sometime in March, Jaylen Brown was told that he should shoot more threes (good Lord, the replies to that tweet are toxic). Prior to March, Jaylen was a mid range assassin, it was incredible to watch. He was regularly embarrassing dudes off the bounce and relentlessly hunting soft spots in the defense for quick pullup middies. That’s not to say he didn’t shoot threes, in fact, he shot roughly 6 a game at around 38%. As of March 1st, he was taking 5.5 shots per game between 8 and 24 feet and making them at a ridiculous 47.3%. These are the hardest shots in basketball and he was making them about as often as Ben Simmons makes a free throw. After March 1st, his shot mix changed pretty considerably. Let’s look at the numbers.
What’s really fascinating is that he almost took exactly the same number of shots and it’s like he just plucked two shots from the long midrange (16 to 24 feet) and turned them into threes. I love when things work out neatly like that, it’s easier for my simple ass brain to comprehend. I think the biggest thing that jumps out is that Jaylen shot 54.5% on long mid range jumpers in the first half of the season, that’s absolutely bonkers. It’s not like he was taking easy attempts either, he was taking and making crazy contested fallaways regularly. He basically shot the same percentage on those shots as he did 7 feet and in during the second half of the season. In the words of South Park’s version of Johnny Cochrane, “it does not make sense.”
Brad caught a lot of heat when Jaylen came out and said he was instructed to take fewer mid range shots. On the surface it’s understandable. He’s was incredible at those shots, why would we want him taking less? In fact, that contingent of fans seemingly has a point. JB was actually less efficient in the second half of the season; his TS% dropped from 59% to 58%. See, Brad was a fool for telling Jaylen to shoot more threes, right? RIGHT?
Well, no, or at least I don’t think so. Ultimately, I think Brad wisely saw the writing on the wall. You simply cannot sustain that ridiculous of a percentage on long, difficult twos. Even if he could, the math simply supports that a 38% three is more points per possession than a 55% two. Couple that with the fact he shot a blistering 41% on 8.2 threes in the second half of the year, and it’s no contest that it makes sense for Jaylen to fire off more threes. The dip in efficiency is almost certainly related to his finishing dropping off in the 7 feet and under range (He fell off several percentage points in the 0–3 feet range, likely due to him battling various injuries and the fact he basically didn’t miss from that range in the first half).
What I think is especially interesting about his changing shot mix, and one of the main things I will focus on when I discuss where Jaylen is headed next season, is the types of threes he took. While Jaylen may have added 2 threes per game in the second half, basically all of them were catch and shoot threes. That’s fine, he’s amazing at catch and shoot 3s (43.1% for the season), but you’d expect his pullups would increase at a similar ratio from the first half of the season. From the start of the season to 3/1, he took 2.2 pullup 3s; from 3/2 on, he took 2.5. He was not good at them all year, 29.9% in the first half and then a slightly improved 32.8%. This is an incredibly important shot for secondary wing creators, and will only become more important as Jaylen ages and his first step slows. He is already so good from just about everywhere else, if Jaylen can unlock this shot, he will be virtually unstoppable. As I will discuss in Part 2, he can make them, and if he does so regularly it’s very possible he ascends to a different level of player.
Jaylen, Please Pass to the Guys in Green Jerseys.
Let me start this part off with a bit of positivity. JB was a dreadful playmaker his first four years, to the point I accepted that it likely would not be a part of his game. Here are his assist percentage numbers in order from his rookie year to present: 7.7, 8.1, 7.9, 9.5, 16.2!!!! He goes from 4 years straight of prime Corey Maggette playmaking (the opposite of a compliment) to “not bad.” That’s a massive jump and has made me hopeful he can jump even higher.
Howeva, assuming we are in the trust tree, Jaylen cannot progress as a playmaker if he doesn’t start taking better care of the ball. It will put a hard cap on how often he will be empowered to run the offense and have sets run for him where he has to make decisions. I have heard rumblings from the fan base that Jaylen should be given more of the ball at the expense of Tatum. I vehemently disagree with that sentiment. Tatum is solidly a better playmaker and turns it over less often despite having more of the ball. The numbers bear this out pretty clearly.
Tatum has more of the ball, has it for more time when he possesses it, and is asked to carry more of the primary creation. Yet, he and Jaylen average the exact same number of turnovers all the while Tatum turns it over on a lower percentage of his possessions and assists on a higher percentage of them. Tatum himself is a bit turnover prone, but considering his usage, he isn’t that bad. Jaylen isn’t “submarine your ability to be a second star” bad, but if he wants to catapult himself into the all-NBA discussion and bring the Celtics right along with him, he absolutely has to become less careless with the ball and simultaneously more dangerous. How he can do both coming up in Part 2.
This is the shameless self-promotion portion of the post. If you cannot get enough Wayne Spooney content, you can follow me on twitter @Wspooney and find me on the Celtics Reddit Podcast @CelticRedditPod (rate and subscribe!).
