15 Players — 15 Stats to Watch — 15 (Or More) Bad Jokes
As we painfully meander towards the start of the season, I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about specific things to monitor as indicators of improvement for our players. It is through this exercise, which I undertook to direct my frantic NBA-related energy from impatiently waiting for the preseason, that I came up with one stat for each of our very special boys, the Boston Celtics. Without further adieu, 15 players, 15 stats, 15 (likely more) bad jokes. The order is based on which guys came to my mind first (Aaron is always at the front of my mind). Away we go.
Aaron “#StartNesmith” Nesmith — Fouls Per 100 Possessions
Last Season — 6.2 Fouls per 100 Poss
It’s been a big few weeks for the #StartNesmith movement. Adam Taylor affirmed he was on board during his appearance on the Celtics Reddit Podcast, and after some hard hitting investigative journalism, I’ve discovered that the legend himself Chris Forsberg is a disciple. That’s all well and good, but all the support and 5,000 word love treatises in the world won’t help Nesmith play if he can’t limit his foul rate. Of guys that actually played last year, Nesmith was second on the team in fouls per 100 (behind Grant, who I flirted with using this as his stat, but he’s got bigger issues and probably is only looking at 10–15 mins a night). I’m going to closely monitor this number and bet it will have an inverse relationship with his playing time. Nesmith needs to reign in his violent energy while still maintaining a high compete level if he wants to continue to see his role blossom next season.
Jayson Tatum — Pass % on Drives
Last Season — 29.7%
I’ve written at length about my belief that Tatum is going to make a jump as a playmaker next season. I was flirting with throwing Ast% or something here, but ultimately I think what will take Tatum to next level scoring and playmaking is his willingness to be a passer. He had a comically low passing percentage on his drives last year (led the team in Drives per game, which is great), and I think if we see that creep up, teams will respect the pass more and the lane will open up for him. It will simultaneously empower his teammates and make his life easier. Pass the ball Jay!
Jaylen Brown — Celtics Net Rating with Tatum OFF Jaylen ON
Last Season — 0.5
I just made a post about how I think before Jaylen can take another step as a playmaker, he needs to limit turnovers. The addition of a pull up 3 will enable this progression as well as make him a more dangerous individual threat. Both of these things will be important to prop up the team when Tatum sits. Since Tatum’s rookie year we’ve been worse when he’s on the bench regardless of who he shares the court with. Last season was no different, when Tatum was ON and Jaylen OFF, the Cs Net Rating was 3.3. With Tatum OFF and Jaylen ON, .5. Tatum propped up the team when he played alone, Jaylen did not. It will be interesting to see how Jaylen performs when his co-star sits a few scenes out.
Marcus Smart — Drives Per Game
Last Season — 7.0
My favorite guy Marcus Smart (paging /u/CelticsJ ) stands to start as our PG next season. That’s great, I think he will do well. That said, there is some legit concern that Smart simply does not get into the paint and get teams into rotation enough to be a starting point guard. It will be interesting to see if his drives per game creeps up with a more defined role. If he can carry this number into the double digits, oh baby, we got a stew going.
Robert Williams — Defensive Rating
Last Season — 112.0
Rob Williams was last on the team in defensive rating last season (the Jays were right behind him so part of this was the starters just didn’t guard anyone). Rob flashes insane potential on that end, but your center is the most important cog in the defensive machine. Great centers lift up other players and drag their team to a respectable defense (I mean look at the Jazz’s roster, none of those guys can guard). Good centers can enable a team with good wing/guard defenders to have a great defense. Rob was unable to do either of those things last year. Rob doesn’t have to get much better on offense to take the next step, but if his defensive positioning and awareness don’t improve, I’m not sure how viable he is as a long-term starter.
Payton Pritchard — PnR Ballhandler Possessions
Last Season — 1.8
PP will always be limited on the defensive end, he will get a little better, but his NBA future rests on his ability to be a high end secondary playmaker. He didn’t have a ton of opportunities to run pick and rolls last year, and when he did it wasn’t pretty (28th percentile in PPP). I will be interested to see what this number does with the addition of Schroder. Will PP get a chance to run some PnR, or will he be chained to a spot on the floor to space for Schroder? Time will tell.
Al Horford — Spot Up PPP
Last Season — 1.1.5 (80th Percentile)
Al is a much different player than he was when he left Boston. He’s not as athletic or physical down low, but he’s still good. He is the type of center we haven’t had since he and Kelly left, someone that can legitimately stretch the floor and empty the paint. His spot up PPP reflects this. If all can continue to be an efficient spot up guy as a center, he will have utility on this team even if his defense slips some. Keep strokin Al (phrasing).
Dennis Schroder — TS%
Last Season — 54.3%
As constructed, the Cs are going to rely on Dennis Schroder to score for their bench units. That’s fine, he was incredibly good at that during his OKC run (57.5 TS%). Last year, when asked to run the starting lineup, his efficiency dipped a lot. It will be interesting to monitor what Schroder is giving us as far as efficient shot making and distributing. If he’s just ok, that will change the ceiling of the bench unit.
Josh Richardson — Opponent 3pt % Diff
Last Season — Opponent 3pt % +3.8
I’m unsure of what Richardson’s role will be next season on offense (spot up guy? Secondary creator? Bit of both? Chained to the bench because Nesmith is better than him? Likely), so I’m going with a defensive measure. Richardson has been billed as a great defender, and given some of his offensive limitations, he will need to be one to get on the floor. Opponents shot 3.8% better from 3 when being defended by Richardson last year, good for 40.9%. Guys hit a lot of shots from three when Richardson was guarding them (should we have him guard Smart on the offensive end? Worth considering). May have been shooting luck, may have been Dallas’ poor scheme, may have been Richardson not doing a great job. Keep this one in mind next season.
Grant Williams — 3PA with Tight Defense
Last Season — 3 Total!!
Grant shot a very respectable 37.5% on catch and shoot 3s last year. The problem is that he basically only shot “Wide Open” (6 or more feet of space) 3s. He fired off a few “Open” threes and was bad at them (30% even) (30 Open compared to 96 Wide Open attempts). So, despite Grant shooting alright on Wide Open Catch and Shoot 3s, he doesn’t actually provide any spacing because he’s afraid to shoot if a defender is anywhere near him. Grant’s shot isn’t bad, he needs to be willing to rise and fire with a guy somewhat near him or his offensive utility is going to be extremely limited.
Honorable Mention for Grant is DREB%. I believe in Grant as a small ball 5, but not if he cannot rebound. His DREB% last year was 11.3%, tied with Kemba Walker. That isn’t ok.
Romeo Langford — Corner 3pt %
Last Season — 22%
It’s pretty clear Romeo is an NBA level defender (a good one), what he does on offense is not clear to me. His handle is stiff and awkward. I see a lot of buzz about “Point Romeo,” unless his handle transforms completely, I just don’t see it. He also can’t shoot… so, maybe if he can knock down enough corner 3s next year he will carve out a nice role? For what it’s worth, he shot 40% on 2.5 corner 3s in the playoffs. If he can emulate close to that, he will have a very nice season.
Juancho Hernangomez — Open 3pt %
Last Season — 27.3% (1.5 Attempts)
Juancho makes wide open 3s and he at least takes open ones. The problem is that he almost never makes them. If Juancho is going to be a stretch 4 on this team he needs to make his open 3s.
Jabari Parker — Points Per 100 Possessions
Last Season — 22.1
Jabari is here to get buckets in limited run. He did that pretty well last year (4th on the team in PP/100Poss behind the Jays and Kemba). He needs to do it even better next year.
Enes Kanter — Post Up Defense PPP
Last Season — .85 (68th Percentile)
Kanter is gonna do what Kanter do, rebound and score some. I think his most important skill add to the team next year is his ability to defend in the post. If he can maintain that PPP while largely being deployed against the very best post scorers (Embiid mainly), he will have carved out a nice role.
Bruno Fernando — Minutes Per Game
Last Season — 6.8
It will be interesting to see if Bruno plays next year. Probably not. Whatever he’s the 15th guy.
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